Nadir Mir presenting his book, 'Gwadar on the Global Chessboard to the Ambassador of Turkmenistan H.E Atadjan Movlamov
Russian celebration of Great Patriotic War
A new war is brewing in the Middle East.
Some analysts have compared it to 1914 commencing into the Great War. This
Great War of the Middle East may engulf adjoining regions and will certainly
influence most of the world. Pakistan of course would be affected in multiple
ways and simply cannot afford to be a silent spectator. The Middle East
Geopolitical environment is quite complicated. Unlike other wars, the
belligerents, alliances are not cast iron. The battle lines are frequently
blurred, friends and foes are at times overlapping with fluid alliances. A host
of state actors both regional and global are involved besides ever increasing
legions of militant non state actors.
On the Eastern flank of the Middle East
and outside the mouth of the Gulf, most strategically located is Pakistan. It
is not merely a South Asian Nation but Pakistan is the central state of many
regions (Middle East / West Asia, Central Asia, China and South Asia). Geo-strategically
Pakistan is the ‘Bridge State’ but also ‘Interposing State’ of multi regions.
This concept has been explained at length in both my books, ‘Gwadar on the
Global Chess board’ and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’.
The soldiers and people of Pakistan are
united to defend Pakistan, its interests and allies. COAS Pakistan General
Raheel Sharif had aptly said that the entire nation stands with the Armed
Forces. The internal enemies, terrorists are being systematically defeated in
Pakistan. The soldiers of Pakistan are the defenders – saviours led by the
brave chief. Pakistan has the potential of not only guarding itself but as the
defender of Saudi Arabia and protector of peace along with Turkey in the
region. Pakistan is a strategic ally of Saudi Arabia/GCC; therefore it cannot
be pragmatically neutral in any conflict. It is Pakistan’s national interest to
support Saudi Arabia/GCC. The millions of Pakistanis workers in the region remit
billions of dollars which are part of Pakistan’s economy and livelihood of tens
of millions within Pakistan. The evacuation of Pakistani and other
nationalities from Yemen is an indicator of Pakistan’s proactive role in West
Asia. Pakistan is determined to contribute for peace in the region.
East Multiple Wars
The first problem in the Middle East is
that multiple wars have been fought simultaneously with many of them
overlapping. Unfortunately, ‘Everybody is virtually fighting with Everybody!’
First, it is a clash involving major
state actors – Saudi Arabia / GCC, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Turkey, left over Syria
– Iraq, Yemen and others. Second, a bewildering array of militant non state
actors has sprouted over previous decades. Hizbullah, Hanmas, Al Nusrah, Al-
Qaeda, ISIS (non state actor – state actor combined), Houthis to name a few.
These ‘Instant Armies’ though asymmetrical are supported by various groups of
local populace, regional state actors and extra regional powers. Third, though
the Cold War is over for over two decades, US and Russia – China are frequently
on opposite sides in the Middle East.
Middle East Policy
USA is playing multiple games in the
Middle East. American policy in the Middle East was based on three pillars, oil
– Israel and conservative Arab States. All three have taken a jolt. The old
American Middle East narrative has not been replaced by a new narrative.
Besides the Middle East environment has become more complex than ever. America’s
two Gulf War in Iraq, destroyed the old order without creating a new one. The
Arab Spring has partly fizzled out or deflected into civil strife. US – Israel
relations have nosed dived. President Obama’s Nuclear Deal with Iran is
vehemently opposed by PM Netanyahu of Israel.
Oil, while still critical for USA and
the world is at a remarkably low price. Conjectured that the aim of low oil
prices is to deprive Russia, Iran not to fill their coffers till the brim.
Shale gas advent in Continental USA may have also marginally reduced the
appetite for Middle East oil. The conservative Arab Regimes were also shocked
by the Arab Spring. The main Middle East dictatorships in Iraq, Egypt, Libya
have vanished. The monarchies are now under threat. The Pentagon led by prudent
General Dempsey is implementing President Obama’s policy of avoiding
misadventures. In any event, the American public opinion is more riveted on the
need to contain Islamic State than elsewhere.
Unintended consequences (read Bush Administration)
blunders at Geopolitical Chess are quite evident. In fact, President Obama has
correctly tried to bring USA out of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps
former Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ warning of ‘not getting involved in Land
War in Asia’ is being heeded. The reluctance to commit US boots on ground to
fight ISIS in Iraq or Houthis in Yemen may be due to war weariness and financial
constraints. Else the US ‘Of Shore Balancing’ strategy using Naval Forces, Air
Power, Special Forces while employing local land forces or allies for
Geopolitical ends is in practice!
– Iran Nuclear Deal
It may satisfy US – EU and Iran but may not
convince Iran’s other foes.
Israel is preparing to strike Iran
supported by pro Israel US lobby. Republicans are hoping to take the White
House in 2016. Even if they don’t the Congress remains Pro Israel.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and smaller
Arab States would seek their own nuclear arsenals or at least a nuclear
umbrella. The only nuclear protector can be Pakistan. A nuclear armed Iran
suits no one, not even Iranians. A Nuclear Iran will lead to a denuclearizing
war against Iran by Israel and others.
Arab States fear US – Iran nuclear deal. They dread that it will free Iran to
make the bomb due to no sanctions but more funds. Iran’s foreign policy is also
perceived in Arab Streets and capitals as aggressive.
View – Neo Persian Empire?
This majority Arab View is that Tehran’s
Realist Foreign Policy (rivaling Washington in its Real Politik) is using Shia
militants/proxies as spearheads. An Arab World View sees the ultimate and
ulterior inspiration of a new Persian Empire with Shia colouring. This ancient
Arab – Ajami (Persian) clash seems to be rekindled by both regional and extra
regional forces. The double pronged Iran backed militants fighting in Iraq and
Yemen raises the specter of strategic encirclement in Riyadh. Iranian Revolutionary
Guard Commander General Solemani was reportedly leading the charge in the
crucial battle of Tikrit. The fall of Tikrit to Iranian backed Iraqi forces and
the aftermath of looting – anarchy has redoubled the fears of the Arabs in the
The threat from the Gulf is unabated in
Saudi minds. A fresh Iranian sponsored militant offensive is feared with
Bahrain as the spring board. Boastful Iranian claims of controlling four Arab
capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sanna confirmed the Saudi Arab view of
a Neo Persian Empire rising. A Shia minority dominating the larger Sunni Muslim
world is their spectre. Even though later responsible Iranian leaders rejected
such claims the damage has been done to widen Arab – Persian Schism. At its
peak, the Old Persian Empire stretched from Egypt and Greece to China. Any such
inspiration today will lead to a larger Middle East War. Iran has multiple and
powerful enemies. An attempt by Tehran to dominate the region will draw a
backlash. Saudi Arabia and Israel will strike back (Saudi Arabia and Israel conflicting
with Iran will be an utter failure for Tehran’s Geo-strategy). Ultimately USA
will join Israel even if it does not join Saudi Arabia’s war with Iran. China –
Russia will support Iran but not go to war for it. In the final analysis, Iran
may find itself alone, with non state actors, militants confronting the Arab
World, Israel, USA and EU. This is a worst case scenario from Tehran’s point of
view. Iran must temper its ambitions and cannot engage in a great Middle East
War which will lead to its utter grief.
The proverbial sleeping giant is
awakening, still it needs support. Saudi – Pakistan fusion can be pure synergism.
As per an Indian author, ‘A match made in Heavens! (The Indians are always petrified
by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia aligning in any capacity). The ‘Salman Doctrine’
is proactive. The young Defence Minister determined to defend Saudi Arabia.
‘Still the proud and noble Arabs, with
their great sense of honour, are a force for global temperate. The time
honoured rustic wisdom of the Bedouin is the recipe and not conflicting, alien,
from the book, Geopolitik Pakistan by Nadir Mir)
Saudi Arabia is rightfully determined to
maintain balance of power. (Guaranteed with Pak – Turk affinity). Even if
Riyadh considers Uncle Sam the ultimate supporter, it is not the initial protector
Tehran has been wise to conclude the nuclear
deal. ‘Next War Iran’ (my article previously published from Pravda Moscow) has
been postponed for now. Removal of sanctions will improve economic condition in
Iran. Still Pakistan – Turkish diplomacy should be accepted by Iran in the
interest of peace and stability. Pakistan even while defending Saudi Arabia is
not Iran’s foe. In fact the Shia – Sunni is a non issue, because all citizens
of Pakistan are equal. Those who target Shias in Pakistan are terrorists and
the Pakistan State will defeat them. However, Iran’s ambitions have to be
checked is not only an Arab, Israel, Western view but larger global opinion. Tehran
must leash all militants destabilizing the Middle East and help usher in peace.
Pakistan’s diplomatic cooperation should make Tehran realize that distance from
India is in its interests. India remains Pakistan’s existential enemy; therefore
Iran should not strategize with Delhi. Pakistan can mediate between Iran and Saudi
Arabia and even US – Iran to an extent.
The first threat to Turkey is Kurdistan.
Those who sponsor Kurdistan also destabilize Pakistan’s Baluchistan. Turkish –
Pakistan alliance will further cement for mutual benefit. Both will defend
Saudi Arabia; mediate for peace in Iran and stability in the larger Middle
East. Turkish – Pakistan Kardeshlik (brotherhood) is now evolving into a
greater strategic consensus. The contours of a triple alliance between Saudi
Arabia/GCC, Pakistan and Turkey are visible. It may have been unthinkable considering
the Ottoman Empire legacy (Lawrence of Arabia peddling) but Geopolitics has its
own logic. In any case, Pakistan is the strategic linkage for both Saudi Arabia
War with Iran
Israel has been planning, preparing and rehearsing
to launch strikes against Iran’s nuclear projects for ages. The nuclear deal
has been rejected by Israel. Tel Aviv
demands Tehran’s recognition of Israel, which the Iranians finds anathema and
are loath to do. The nuclear deal makes it difficult but not impossible for
Israel to provoke a war with Iran.
Tel Aviv will provoke Iran, lure it with
stratagems into a wider conflict with Arab States and raise a bogey of a Neo
Persian Empire as threat to Israel and Arabs alike. If the culturally rich Iranian
let the flames of the Middle East spread, then Israel will launch disarming strikes
(on Iran’s nuclear projects). Even if Israeli strikes are a failure, Iran’s
retaliation will start a larger war. US Congress will ensure that USA joins the
war against Iran. So the thinking may go in parts of Tel Aviv.
Yemen is both a political and
Geopolitical issue. It is a tribal and power struggle rather than a sectarian issue.
Yemen is basically not a Shia – Sunni conflict. It is turning into a contest
between Saudi Arabia and Iran contesting as they are on the larger Middle East
Chessboard. Loyalists of President Hadi, even previous leader Saleh, Houthis,
Al-Qaeda, militant forces were all fighting. In early April 2015, Yemen’s capital
Sanna and strategic port Aden are in Houthis’ hands. Saudis Air Force along
with coalition had enforced no fly zone and now both Saudi and Iranian Naval
Forces are posturing around the Red Sea. Any Houthi or other militant attempt
to attack Saudi Arabia should not be acceptable to Pakistan and Turkey. While
Pakistan will defend Saudi Arabia, diplomacy with Iran is also underway. In
fact, Pakistan’s policy is balanced. A twin track strategy to use military
instruments to defend Saudi Arabia and diplomacy with Iran for peace and stability
in the larger Middle East. Russia and China both stands for peace in the Middle
East and should be co opted in Pakistani diplomacy.
New Thirty Years War or Ralph Peter Map?
A chorus of mostly western voices is
terming the Middle East inferno with various analogies. Richard Hass President Counsel
of foreign relations had labeled it ‘The New Thirty Years War’. Other thinkers
have followed suit. It may suit some extra regional forces to see the Middle
East Muslim World at war with itself. The Thirty Years War (1618 – 1648) was a
struggle over political – religious order of Central Europe. It resulted in the
treaty of Westphalia and led to the emergence of modern nation states.
The infamous Ralph Peter’s Map of a
balkanized Middle East may have suited Neocons and globalists but does not suit
peace and stability in the larger Middle East.
Skeptics warns of the notion of
‘Controlled Chaos’ converting into ‘Uncontrolled Chaos!’ An arc of
destabilization may have been planned from Nile to Indus (Egypt to Pakistan).
By the same token, today the pillars of stabilizing the greater Middle East
will now be Pakistan and Turkey (the flanking powers of the region). The
conflict being waged from Basra to Bruit and in Yemen will have to conclude.
The 1916 Sykes Picot agreement was to carve out British, French spheres of
influence at the cost of the Ottoman Empire. Even if imperfect the nation states
of Middle East today cannot be left to the vicious appetite of militant non
Imperfect partition was also the fate of
the subcontinent. The British Radcliffe Award should have awarded Gurdaspur –
Pathankot region to Pakistan. Kashmir and a part of East Punjab which were denied
was Pakistan’s due share at partition 1947. This would have brought peace in
stands for Peace and Stability in the Middle East
of Pakistan’s Geo strategy
(From the Book Geopolitik Pakistan by
Defend and stabilize Saudi Arabia / GCC
Strategize with Turkey and China
Diplomatic parlays with Iran
Develop Gwadar and coast to become a
maritime power and protector of Gulf States
Build full spectrum, maximum assured
Pakistan statecraft should make it a key
Gulf and Middle East player.
is destined to rise as a Regional Power and Great Nation.
Brigadier Nadir Mir (R) is author of the books “Gwadar on the
Global Chessboard” and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’
His blogs are, Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics.
Blog on Face book, ‘Revolutionary Pakistan’
He is working for the national cause.
Brigadier Nadir Mir as a guest speaker and co-author at book launching.
Brigadier Nadir Mir at Express Forum
by Brigadier Nadir Mir
- Pakistan Army’s Zar-b-Azb secures its western borders. US withdrawal from Afghanistan is replaced by pro Pakistan powers.
- Gwadar is developed and Baluchistan stabilized. China’s investment and involvement in Baluchistan creates a new balance of power in Pakistan’s favour.
- Pakistan Army relatively freed from its western border concentrates on Pakistan’s eastern border.
- Kashmir is globalised and Pakistani nation mobilized for Kashmir’s liberation.
- Kashmir and Khalistan freedom movements are synergized and have domino effect in Assam, Tamil Nadu and elsewhere in India.
- Indian Muslim Militants inspired from bases in Afghanistan and Iraq wage struggle in India.
- Pakistan selectively responds to India’s military buildup. In the next couple of years, PAF fighter jet fleet is augmented, even as Pakistan Navy acquires new submarines building up second strike capability, while Pakistan Army enhances its fire power and missile assets.
- Pakistan and China strategize on a joint two front war against India.
- Pakistan maintains friendship with USA, the western world even while cozying up with Russia. With China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Pakistan’s strategic consensus increases to the next level. Relations with old friends like Indonesia are rekindled. The recent visit of
- Geography: India is hemmed in.
‘If the north of India faces the majestic Himalayas and mountains, west of India faces the ‘Great Wall of Pakistan’.
India came from Afghanistan, Central Asia, West Asia and Turkic regions, except the British. All these regions combine to make up Pakistan’s identity, since Pakistan is not merely a South Asian State. The soldiers and people of Pakistan will defeat Indian bid for hegemony in the region. This is the past and future history for South Asia.
Pakistani Nation is united to defend Pakistan. The war against India is Pakistan’s war of national survival. The brave soldiers of Pakistan are supported by the entire nation. Pakistan’s conventional military strength and asymmetrical prowess can defend Pakistan and even finish the war on a favourable note.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal
In the final analysis, Pakistan’s heroically guarded nuclear arsenal remains supreme. The world respected SPD, under the competent and bold General Zubair Hayat remain ever ready to deter Indian chauvinism. In case, Delhi strategically invades, then Pakistan’s massive nuclear and multiple assured delivery means will unleash ‘Armageddon in the East’.
The Guns of August to India – Pakistan War
The Guns of August to India – Pakistan War
By Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)
The Limits of Western Geo-StrategyPosted by on Jul 8, 2014 in Opinion |
The Limits of Western Geo-Strategy
By Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)
Full Spectrum Nuclear Deterrence – Pakistan
Full Spectrum Nuclear Deterrence – Pakistan
By Brigadier Nadir Mir
- War or no war?The first Indian miscalculation is obviously that it can wage limited war, damage or punish Pakistan and get away with it. This view is likely to enhance in an atmosphere of ‘Global India’ hubris. It is further compounded by Delhi’s aim of bearing a mantle larger than British India. The advocates of the ‘Indian Century’ consider Pakistan as a stumbling block to India’s larger ambitions. It is this grandiose obsession which may steer India towards the war path. India is also irked by rising China with whom it hopes to compete. Before confronting China, it may opt to deal with what it terms as the ‘Arch Rival on the Indus’ called Pakistan (even as it prepares for a two front war).By contrast Pakistan can also miscalculate in the opposite sense. Many Pakistanis confident of its nuclear prowess believe there is no chance of war. In case of conflict, this could prove ominous – ‘a Nuclear Ardennes’. Historically, Pakistan being peace seeking has been miscalculating India.Whatever Pakistanis may have miscalculated in 1965, 1971 or kargil is no longer a luxury available to us. Needless to say Pakistan cannot afford to miscalculate in a war likely to go nuclear.
- Tactical or Strategic Nuclear WarPakistan’s strides in tactical nuclear weapons, Nasr and beyond have caused consternation in Indian strategic circles. Battle field nuclear weapons in Pakistani hands are considered as an antidote to Indian Cold Start Strategy. The Indians have launched a tirade or propaganda campaign against Pakistan’s tactical nukes. Besides numerous other feeble notions, the Indians lament nuclear war cannot remain tactical and lead to strategic nuclear war. The fact is that Pakistan is working towards full spectrum nuclear deterrence. Logically this includes both tactical and strategic nuclear responses.Escalation Domination“Shayam Saran convener of the Indian National Security Advisory Board – its nuclear retaliation will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage on its adversary. The label on a nuclear weapon for attacking India, strategic or tactical is irrelevant from Indian perspective’. In essence, for a perceived militant strike in India, it would launch surprise war with armoured spear heads supported by Indian Air Force into Pakistan. In case of Pakistani tactical nuclear usage in its defence, Delhi threatens all out strategic nuclear attacks to annihilate Pakistan. Pakistan in turn can reduce all of India to radioactive debris. Mutually Assured Destruction stage had already been reached, but Delhi is in a state of denial!! Pakistan’s nuclear retribution to an Indian nuclear attack will leave few survivors in India.”
(From the book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ by Nadir Mir)
- Pakistan’s Nuclear Developmental StrategyNuclear Pakistan’s detractors, critics, propagandists, term it as the fastest growing nuclear programme. Besides a legion of Indian propagandists, some lobbyists in the western world like Bruce Riedel, Fredrick Kagan, are not amiable to Pakistan. Fact of the matter is that nuclear Pakistan is what ensures stability in many regions and keeps Geopolitical mayhem at bay. Delhi may once again destabilize deterrence as it did by introducing nuclear submarines and missile defence in the nuclear equation. ‘Indian Nuclear Doctrine – Stirrings of Change’ by PR Chari has noted that India’s ‘No First Use’ pledge may be revoked. More so, India’s ‘Nuclear Triad’ efforts make a mockery of limited credible nuclear deterrence.Pakistan’s SPD now brilliantly and boldly led by DG Lt General Zubair Hayat is building a nuclear arsenal among the best in the world. Pakistan’s nuclear developmental strategy needs to cover all range of nuclear threats, ensuring its own security and with guaranty of launching ‘Massive Assured Retribution’. Under a suave and professional joint chief General Rashid Mahmood, Nuclear Pakistan will remain responsible, secure and not to be trifled with.Pakistan should not to be the first to start a war but cannot be the second to launch Nuclear War!
International Maritime Symposium at Navy War College
China emerged as an economic peer, Putin’s Russia as a strategic rival and elusive Islamic militants embroiled Americans in Islamic lands, even as the Arab Spring created a new equation. Meanwhile, EU faced economic crisis, while global wealth partly shifted into the ‘Petro Gulf’, Asian Tigers and Central Asian cities. The new entrants into the global economic arena included Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and even Mexico.
America had waged protracted, unwinnable wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. With a war weary public at home, the culmination point of US unilateralism had been reached. Even Robert Gates, the previous Secretary Defence, had warned that ‘USA should no longer get involved in land wars in Asia’.
In 2013, when USA was prevented from attacking Syria, it sought diplomacy with Iran (to the annoyance of Israelis and Saudis), and found Karzai reluctant to sign BSA. Kabul did sign agreements with India and Iran and would probably later with USA. But the world had changed for Washington. Even as the US made Asia Pacific its pivot with Air Sea Battle plans against China (akin to Air Land Battle against Soviet Union), its Middle East influence was slipping. Discovery of shale gas at home, besides difficulties abroad also reduced US’ appetite and penchant for Middle East energy reserves. The cumulative effect of all this and much more is that America remains pre-eminent but not predominant. In essence, US may lead but not control the world.
So, now that brings us to the non-polar world. ‘There is no need for conflict between America and China now that global dominance is no longer achievable’. Zbigniew Brzezinski Giants, but Not Hegemons (NY Times Feb 13, 2013)
The emerging non-polar world or zero-polar world has already cast a shadow on Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia confluence. Regional Geopolitics may be taking a new turn.
And now, we move onto regional geopolitics. Now the clock is ticking in Afghanistan. By next year, most US combat forces are expected to leave for home. Afghan war is already a forgotten story in US. Except for small vested lobbies, mainstream America wants an end to this war. Some Afghans living on US dole want US troops to ferry them along to the home of the brave. Some quarters in Pakistan are in a state of denial as to how and why should US leave Afghanistan (perhaps they never heard of US withdrawal from Vietnam). Delhi is petrified by the very idea of US leaving Afghanistan. US – Iran détente is possible, yet the geopolitics of the regions is extremely complicated. Normal relations between the two foes will take some time and are also hostage to future American Administration and their worldview.
The emerging non-polar world and regional geopolitics are positive trends for Pakistan. A unified Pakistan putting its house in order is a prerequisite. By combining its virtues, both as a ‘Bridge’ state and ‘Interposing’ state of multi-regions, Pakistan would guard its national interests. With peace at home and pursuing a nationalistic policy, Pakistan can achieve its rightful place on the map.
Brigadier Nadir Mir (r) is a geopolitician and defence analyst.
By Nadir Mir
- East. India remains Pakistan’s main and perpetual existential threat. As the world’s largest arms importer, build up of nuclear war fighting triad, augmented by outer space forays, trigger happy Cold Start preparations and seeks to enforce a two front scenario on Pakistan. Delhi not only tyrannizes Kashmir, aspires to destabilize Pakistan through Afghan bases but also works on a sinister plan to enhance friction between Iran and Pakistan. In essence, while threatening from the East, undermine from within and strategic encirclement from West of Pakistan is India’s design. Even more ominous and deceptive are peace, cultural and friendship claims by the disciples of so called ‘Global India’.
- North West. US – NATO deinduction from Afghanistan in 2014 is a Geopolitical climactic. The future security environment in Afghanistan will be radically different from today. The Kabul regime, former Northern Alliance supported by India may battle the emboldened and augmented Taliban. Even if the Americans leave a rear guard manning nine bases, their stay will become inhospitable after some time. India will try to arm terrorists for strikes on Pakistan even as it fails to invoke Pashtun and Baloch nationalism to weaken Pakistan. A negotiated settlement involving Afghan Taliban, Pakistan, US and Kabul (minus India) could prevent an Afghan Civil War. Pakistan holds most cards and is poised as a winner; still it cannot permit India to consolidate its hold on Afghanistan, even as Delhi builds an inhuman wall to convert Kashmir into a ‘Giant Prison’.
- South West. US – Iran interim nuclear deal may be a harbinger of things to come. By end 2014, US draw down of forces in Afghanistan may also be linked to a new understanding with Iran. Unless the nuclear deal fizzles out, leading to more sanctions by USA on Iran or Israel strikes Iran which escalates into a greater regional war. In any event, India is investing in Chah Bahar Port aiming to bypass Gwadar, encirclement of Pakistan and access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Delhi may enjoy the benevolence of Washington in this unholy nexus. Still Iran is expected to remain friendly to Pakistan and not fall into this trap, rather build energy links with Pakistan.
- Internal. Pakistan faces multi pronged terrorist campaign. This has been a combined product of internal adverse dynamics and hostile Geopolitics. The Pakistani Taliban in KPK and Baluch militants in Baluchistan, have created mayhem. Besides tragic loss of lives and limbs, the economy has been ruined. Pakistan needs internal peace at the earliest. The Pakistani Taliban and Baluch militants need to be pacified, employing all elements of national power. Fortunately, the federal government is already seeking peace with both forms of militancy.
- Indian Propaganda. General Bikram Singh Indian COAS expects cooperation from Pakistan on LOC (to India’s advantage). Indian Army Lt General Syed Ali Husnian (R) too wants General Raheel Sharif to keep LOC in Kashmir quiet. (While India builds the great wall of oppression).In essence Indian propagandists as per their desires want Pakistan Army further embroiled in the Western Border even after Americans leave Afghanistan. Delhi wants Pakistan Army imbalanced on its Eastern Border, further duped by cultural and trade gimmicks. Unfortunately for the Indians, Pakistan Army fully comprehends Indian stratagems and COAS General Raheel Sharif is very competent to give a befitting reply.
- National Security and Democracy. Even while ensuring national security, democracy will be supported by the Army. Indeed the time has come to overcome this civil – military divide. The Army Chief with his confident personality is well suited to bring harmony in soldiers and citizens for the security and prosperity of Pakistan.
- Future Endeavours. A complete response to national security challenges merits, a research paper. The contours of some salient’s can at best be listed here:
- National Unity The Army and nation are united and this needs to be further cemented in all ways. Peace within Pakistan will free the Army for its main job, defending Pakistan from India and to maintain balance of power in the region.
- Full Spectrum Nuclear Deterrence Full spectrum Nuclear Deterrence must be built up. It is nuclear weapons power which puts Pakistan on the global map, besides ensuring regional nuclear deterrence. Pakistan must resist FMCT and keep building its nuclear arsenal.
- Modern War Machine Even though strategy drives technology but technology also drives strategy. The two are interdependent. Despite paucity of resources a modern war machine is indispensable for Pakistan. China and Turkey are strategic partners and great conduits for military technology.
- Single Front The Pakistan Army must concentrate on a single front – Eastern Frontier. Peace within Pakistan, facilitating Exit Strategy for USA from Afghanistan, is paramount. Hostile ‘Game Plan’ of embroiling Pakistan Army on the Western Frontier must be defeated. Pakistan Army should be gracefully shifted from Western to Eastern border in 2014 onwards.
- Kashmir LOC Pakistan Army must remain pro active in Kashmir LOC and vigilant on its Eastern Border. Indian aggression in Kashmir must be responded, tit for tat. India’s wall making in Kashmir should be resisted in the disputed land.
- Conclusion The Army Chief General Raheel Sharif is in command when new opportunities will present themselves. With his astute strategic sense, he knows that time is on the side of Pakistan. The Americans are greatly thinning out of Afghanistan, and Pakistan should reap the fruit of sacrifices of a decade long war. Indian Geo-strategic game plan is failing in Afghanistan, even as occupied Kashmir becomes more insecure. Under dynamic leadership, Pakistan will not only defend itself but attain its rightful place in the regions around. Pakistan will triumph in future!!
Pakistan’s Weltanschauung (World View) By Nadir Mir
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Kashmir dispute is a bone of contention between Pakistan and India. If the Indian held Kashmir (IHK) was a part of India, then what is the issue? Nevertheless, the dispute is that Kashmir, which should have been part of Pakistan, is illegally occupied by India.
A recent statement issued by Pakistan’s Interior Ministry, reportedly, equates Kashmir and other troubled regions in India with Balochistan; it is, indeed, despicable. Whether it was a misstatement or misunderstanding is unknown. However, it is culpable; the statement needs to be clarified. The Kashmiri freedom fighters cannot be equated with militants of different hues in Indo-Pakistan or elsewhere.
Pakistan-Russian amity is natural. It was forsaken at the altar of the Cold War. Moreover, America’s quest for Soviet Union’s containment and Pakistan’s need of support against bellicose India resulted in the Pak-US alliance.
Change we need! by Nadir Mir
Target - Pakistan Army
US drones strikes prompt Pakistan to strengthen ties with Russia
Aug 9, 2012 14:09 Moscow Time
Interview with Pakistani Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)
Interview with Brigadier Nadir Mir (R), SI (M) ndc, afwc, fsc (T), psc, qsl
•To project Gwadar’s great potential – a major economic alternative, to begging for funds.
•Gwadar Concept is not limited to the Mekran Coast. It is in fact an Economy Changer for all of Pakistan.
•China the world’s second biggest economy needs to be fully linked to Gwadar.
•Pakistan needs an economic and cultural bonding with multi-regions. This includes China, Central Asian States, Russia, West Asia- Iran, Saudi Arabia – Gulf States, Turkey and Africa.
•Gwadar though vital has been neglected – victim of negative politics and hostile Geopolitics.
•Baluchistan’s problems (Exploited by India and foreign powers) demand attention and resolution.
•The Geo-Political indicators favour Gwadar Development.
The Gwadar Concept
•The Global Chessboard is dynamic and evolving. Global economic balance is shifting. Pakistan should initiate a pro-active Geo-economic policy.
•Optimize Pakistan’s Multiregional Geography for Geo-economics gains. Pakistan’s economic bonding with China, Central Asian States – Russia, West Asia – Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Gulf States and Africa.
•Gwadar Port is concept based. The concept is to synergize Pakistan’s multiregional (Geo-Strategic) location, Open Sea Board for Oil – Gas Pipelines, Energy Centre, Transshipment, Transit, Trade, and Finance Generation.
•Gwadar is the Future of Pakistan.
Firstly, the Balochistan unrest is Pakistan’s internal problem. This issue must be solved as per Pakistani (including Baloch) aspirations but without foreign meddling. Secondly, reportedly, USA is chiseling a West Asian Strategy. This includes war against Iran and destabilizing Pakistani Balochistan and Irani Seastan. In my article ‘Balochistan and Geopolitics’ published in Pravda ru (Moscow) and Nation (Pakistan), I had highlighted some of these aspects. The Americans want to sever Pakistan Iran (including gas pipeline), block China from reaching Indian Ocean at Gwadar. With Pakistan’s new friendship with Russia, even curtail Moscow’s influence at Gwadar in future. Recent American writings betray their Geo strategic designs. One article is quoted below:
‘To counter what China is doing in Pakistan, the United States should play hardball by supporting the movement for an independent Baluchistan along the Arabian Sea and working with Baluch insurgents to oust the Chinese from their budding naval base at Gwadar. Beijing wants its inroads into Gilgit and Baltistan to be the first step on its way to an Arabian Sea outlet at Gwadar.’
Selig S. Harrison “Chinese Cozy Up to the Pakistanis”
The Indians have been trying to destabilize Balochistan for ages. If India was not so hostile, it would have remained in the Iran – Pakistan – India (IPI) gas pipeline project, despite American pressure. A quote below is self-evident; Stable Pakistan Not in India’s Interest
Bharat Verma ,Editor, Indian “Defence Review“
A new leaf should be turned. US Geo strategy should be replaced by Geo-economics. Landlocked Afghanistan should be linked to Pakistan’s – Gwadar. The Americans are welcome as investors – businessman (they are even welcome in Vietnam where they fought a long war). Pakistan and America were friends before the US War in Afghanistan. They should remain friends after America leaves Afghanistan.
•Firstly Pakistan’s Geography
Its location is super. The location is globally pivotal. If North of it Is the famed Mackinder’s Heartland, itself a part of Spykman’s Rimland. It is located on the Cross Road of Empires. It joins Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia and Indian Ocean. Geo economically it is a ‘Bridge State’ between multi regions, Geo strategically, it is the ‘Interposing State’. West of it is oil rich Gulf, North West energy rich Caspian Sea/Caucasus. River waters, glaciers in the north, Arabian Sea – Indian Ocean in the South.
For a medium sized state, it has all kind of terrain, deserts plains, coast, hilly, snow mountain regions and all four weathers. Its natural treasures abound (though mostly untapped or utilized so far). Reko Dik Gold Reserve in Baluchistan estimated over $ 1 trillion. Thar Coal Reserves in Sindh have energy estimated equal to Saudi Arabia – Iran oil energy output combined. A lot else to follow. Only Kashmir and its river waters occupied by India is the problem.
By 2015 Pakistan’s population will be 200 million of which 65 % or 130 million will be youth. This energetic – nationalist youth bulge is Pakistan’s future and strength. Pakistan’s national character includes ‘faith in Islam’, ‘love for Pakistan’, ‘courage and spirit of freedom’.
•Thirdly, Military and Nuclear Strength
Pakistan’s Military is strong, professional and motivated to defend Pakistan. Its nuclear strength is robust and sophisticated. This is to ensure deterrence as Pakistan believes in peaceful resolutions of all disputes. Pakistan cannot be conquered by anyone.
•Firstly, unite all Pakistanis on one nationalist platform and achieve consensus for national interests.
•Secondly, a reformist agenda to rid Pakistan of major ills. Build Gwadar and revive a national economic cycle.
•Thirdly, a pro people welfare system for ensuring decent basic living to the nation.
•Fourthly, stressing on all forms of education for human resource development of the youth bulge.
•Last yet not least, ensuring national sovereignty and security at all costs.
His blog is Pakistan and Geopolitics (wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/) and his next book Geopolitik Pakistan (A Global and Futuristic Outlook) is being published
Nuclear Discourse (A Nuclear Discussion at Two Tiers – South Asia and Global) is being revised and updated.
The Global Anti Elite Revolution
Posted by EU Times on Jun 2nd, 2012 / Nadir Mir
Centre of Gravity
LAHORE – American and Indian interests in Gwadar coincide hugely, and both are bent upon splitting Balochistan in order to materialise its nefarious designs of truncating Pakistan and Iran, and denying Chinese access to the Port.
This has been maintained by Brigadier (retd) Nadir Mir, who has written ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’, a comprehensive study of the Port, for which he claims to be ‘the architect’. He asserts that he was involved with the project since ‘providence brought him to the stage’.
Mir believes that Gwadar has all possibilities of economic resurgence – ‘conduit for ailing economy of Pakistan’ – since it will act as a multiregional link up utilising Pakistan’s pivotal global geography, and connecting different regions like China with the Gulf, Afghanistan and the Indian Ocean. To him, after access given to China, Russia and the Central Asian Republics, Pakistan will be the direct beneficiary. “It is a twist of irony that today Pakistan is inviting Russia to warm waters after the former USSR’s attempt was foiled by us,” he mentioned, adding that the step could end Pakistan’s dependence on others since huge number of job, services, and assignments would be created, and Balochistan will become the richest province of all.
Mir avers that there are three aspects of the Balochistan problem; first, injustice has resulted in grievances, and the Baloch are not getting fair deal. Secondly, the biggest blunder was committed by killing Nawab Akbar Bugti leading to further alienation. And foreign influence, especially of India and US, has further aggravated the situation. “Baluchistan will achieve independence. For New Delhi this opens a window of opportunity to ensure that Gwadar Port does not fall into the hand of the Chinese. In this there is synergy between the political objective of the Americans and the Indians,” he quoted Indian Defence Review, adding that India wanted to control the India Ocean and build new water navy to block the Chinese. “India has been planning and systematically building asymmetrical resistance in Balochistan having identified it as Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel. For this, India has been using West Asia, safe house and consulates in Afghanistan,” he mentioned.
Thirdly, Gwadar will bring Pakistan closer to the Gulf Arabs since the proximity will develop relations damaging to the Indian interests. “Despite all drama of Confidence Building Measures and dialogue, India sees Pakistan as zero-sum game.
Our any strength is in disadvantage of India,” he opined, adding that American and Indian stakes coincide tremendously in Gwadar. While referring to Selig S. Harrison’s article ‘The Chinese Cozy Up to the Pakistanis’, Mir mentions that the US has been recommended to work for independence of Balochistan. “Think tanks and lobbies in the west, which if not for any other reason, blackmail Pakistan and talk about splitting Balochistan.
Even in the neocon era of Bush Junior, new Middle East map had been shown independent Balochistan truncating Pakistan and Iran, while blocking the Chinese access to Gwadar,” he maintained.
Geopolitics of Peace – 1 by Nadir Mir